相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
Japan's finance minister disclosed this morning that the US president raised yen weakness at Tuesday's summit with the prime minister.
Dollar-yen traded 158.78 to 158.33 and was back in the 158.50s within half an hour. That is what the most senior verbal signal available short of actual money is currently worth — and London opens with it already fading.
USD/JPY expires at 157.00 and 158.00 with spot at 157.52 — a hundred-pip box on a Tokyo holiday.
EUR/USD's 1.1500 strike is 25 pips away with a moving average and two named resistance levels in the gap. The notionals are in an image again.
The CDU took 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the AfD 38.2%, and EUR/USD spent the Asian session between 1.1477 and 1.1485 — exactly the non-reaction we published three weeks ago.
But the two-year Bund moved five to six basis points to 3.28%. We were right about the euro and looking at the wrong screen.
Six hours of Tokyo produced forty-six pips in USD/JPY and thirteen in EUR/USD.
UK CPI beat to 3.1% and every basis point of it was motor fuel — core held at 2.6%, so the print tells you not to trade it. The only order book we can read is EUR/JPY: stops at 179.50, sells and stops together at 180.00, and nothing real bid until 177.70. No expiry ladder for today at 06:26, the fifth time we have counted. With the Fed under twelve hours out, London is a sizing question, not a direction one.
Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map.
InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.
On Friday this desk published the 10:00 New York cut ladder — $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00, $2.74bn at 153.00, $1.66bn at 152.00.
The same publisher's second 11 September ladder, posted seven hours later under a different byline, says $3.06bn, $2.88bn, and carries no 152.00 line at all. Neither page is wrong, which is the problem. No ladder for today existed at 06:20 UTC, so London opens on Friday's map — and Tokyo has already run 153.37 to 154.14.
EUR/USD traded a thirteen-pip range in Tokyo — 1.1619 to 1.1632 — directly above New York cut expiries at 1.1615 and 1.1600, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1611–1.1620.
There is no European data today at all and the ECB is thirty hours away. Why four levels inside twenty-three pips is one level, and what a range system does wrong here.
EUR/USD is pinned around 1.1625 between option expiries and two-sided stops while the ECB sits in its seven-day quiet period.
The decision lands Thursday 12:15 UTC, Lagarde at 12:45, US CPI Friday 12:30. Why today's London open is a liquidity event, not an information one.