相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
Iran offered to reopen Hormuz on Friday, crude fell and dollar-yen travelled 202 pips to 156.93.
Trump rejected the plan on Saturday. Brent has recovered 79.8% of Friday's fall on the Monday open; dollar-yen has recovered 23%. Either verbal intervention did the work, or Tokyo has not repriced yet.
Oil rose 2.18% today, or 1.77%, depending on which oil.
Brent and WTI are 11.54 apart on a story that is structurally about seaborne cargo — and the dollar index made a seven-week high on it while USD/JPY went 60 pips through the level Japan rate-checked at.
The CBI beat by 24 points and sterling made a new September low.
Australia's manufacturing PMI fell into contraction at 49.3 and AUD/USD sat at 0.7115. Iran offered to reopen Hormuz and the yen round-tripped fifty pips. The only directional information all session came from a $69bn two-year auction that scored in line on every demand metric — and cleared 47.2 basis points above July's.
Four houses read Friday's rate check the same way — the Ministry is watching pace over a rolling window, not defending a level.
MUFG's "every three months" cadence, anchored on 18 September, points at December rather than October. And three feeds put spot 77 pips apart with mutually impossible day ranges, which is the error bar on any pace calculation.
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night.
Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.