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タグ: 30-year auction 解除

2026年10月8日木曜日 · 1 本

USDJPY

We Subtracted 22 Billion Dollars. It Is Published — and So Is a December Number Fifteen Points Above Ours.

We put 22 billion dollars in print four days ago as our own subtraction from a 119-billion-dollar three-day total, with today as the deadline to source it or drop it.

Two publishers give today's 17:00 thirty-year reopening as 22 billion dollars. The Treasury's own schedule publishes the reopening flag that determines the size and states that it carries no amounts. September's reopening stopped through the when-issued by 2.7 basis points with primary dealers taking 2.2 per cent against an 11.5 per cent average. And Governor Waller, in Istanbul this morning, put at-least-one-hike-by-December at about 85 per cent against the 70 in our file.

2026年9月10日木曜日 · 3 本

Treasury 30-year auction

The 30-Year Stopped Through by 2.7bp and Dealers Took 2.2%. That Was Not a Buyers' Strike.

$22bn cleared at 5.308% against a 5.335% when-issued — a 2.7bp stop-through, bid-to-cover 2.61 against a 2.38 average, and primary dealers left with a record-low 2.2%.

Real money took 97.8% of a thirty-year issue. Yields are not rising because buyers vanished; they are rising because the clearing price of duration moved. Plus the ECB's own projections showing core inflation higher in 2027 than in 2026.

ECB PPI

Two Days Ago There Was No 12:30 Window. Today There Are Seven in Four Hours and Forty-Five Minutes.

ECB at 12:15, PPI and claims at 12:30, Lagarde at 12:45, the New York cut at 14:00, EIA crude at 16:00, the 30-year at 17:00.

EUR/USD is sitting at 1.1637 between expiry strikes at 1.1600 and 1.1650 — a pin that needs a quiet tape and will not get one. Which two of the seven windows you are actually paid to be in, and why the last two are the ones missing from most event filters.

USD

Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC

Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night.

Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.

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