Berita FX

The Month-End Fix Is Two Hours After the Option Cut Today. On Monday It Is One.

Today is the last business day of October, so the 16:00 UTC London fix carries month-end rebalancing — and the 10am New York option cut is at 14:00 UTC, two hours earlier.

Until last Friday the gap was one hour and from Monday it is one hour again, because London left summer time on 25 October and New York leaves it on 1 November. By our own arithmetic off three sources' transition dates, the two offsets are misaligned for about three weeks in March and one week now, and this month-end falls inside the short one. A window open 13:45–14:15 UTC covers today's cut and closes an hour and three quarters before the fix; the same window on Monday covers nothing, because the cut has moved to 15:00. We also have to correct ourselves: on 28 October we wrote that the cut "is 14:00 UTC every day and the Fed announces at 18:00 every time", and both halves stop being true on Monday — the December decision announces at 19:00. On the board, a mirror gives euro strikes layered 1.1150 to 1.1200 with the larger ones nearer 1.1175, one yen strike at 158.00 and one Australian at 0.7025, and no notionals at all for the fourth consecutive time. The publisher's undated expiry address served a board bylined 29 January — yen strikes at 150.00 against a 157 spot — with October sidebars, which is the opposite of yesterday's one-day-stale board: the detectable staleness is the harmless kind. The only month-end rebalancing note we could read is August's, so we publish no signal. Three Fed speakers sit from 16:00.

The 13:00 Print Already Happened in Four German States. The 12:30 Print Moves to 13:30 on Monday.

Germany publishes October consumer prices at 13:00 UTC and four of its state statistical offices have already published theirs, every one of the four lower: Bavaria 2.8 per cent year-on-year from 3.2, North Rhine–Westphalia 2.7 from 3.3, Lower Saxony 2.9 from 3.3, Baden-Württemberg 2.6 after a three-tenths fall. So the 13:00 window guards a release whose direction was public eight hours earlier. The fifth state is the one to doubt: Saxony is reported as having "remained at 2.8", which asserts a September reading of 2.8, while a second publisher has September Saxony at 3.40 — and the other four priors cross-check to the tenth, so the suspect field is a word rather than a number. The consensus is also two objects: 3.0 per cent national year-on-year on one vendor against a Reuters poll at 3.1 for the harmonised rate. The second mechanism arrives Sunday. The United States ends daylight time on 1 November, three-sourced, so every American release moves an hour later in UTC while nothing European moves — and the issuer's own label, "Eastern Time", names a zone and not an offset, so the string "08:30 AM" is identical on the October and November pages while the instant is not. Payrolls on 6 November is 13:30 UTC, not 12:30. Our own week-ahead had October CPI on 13 November; the issuer has it on the 10th and the 13th is PPI. Euro-area Q3 GDP printed 0.4 against a 0.2 consensus — a beat that is also a deceleration from 0.6 — with France at minus 0.1 and Ireland at 5.5.