Canada Printed Plus 0.1 and Plus 0.4. Against the Same Consensus, That Is a Miss and a Beat.
Statistics Canada answered the question we asked this morning and the answer is worse than the question.
September CPI rose 0.1 per cent month over month unadjusted and 0.4 per cent seasonally adjusted, both labelled, both in the same release. Against the plus 0.2 consensus three readers carried, the first is a 10 basis point miss and the second a 20 basis point beat; a fourth reader had plus 0.3, and all four combinations flip the sign. The headline was clean: 3.1 per cent against 3.2 expected. Two retractions. Our seasonal-adjustment framing is dead, because unadjusted accelerated 0.2 points and adjusted accelerated 0.2 points - the acceleration was the invariant and the surprise is what depends on the series. And we said the Bank of Canada's three core measures had no September consensus; the release page carries CPI-median at 1.9 expected and CPI-trim at 1.9, so trim missed at 1.8 and median came in line at 1.9, both lower than the prior month and averaging 1.85 per cent. The headline accelerated while all four core baskets decelerated: common 2.6 to 2.4, trim 1.9 to 1.8, median 2.0 to 1.9, ex-gasoline 2.4 to 2.2. The entire acceleration, and 0.2 points more, is gasoline.