Noticias FX

The BEA Publishes a Minute and No Zone. Three Days Ago the Ifo Published Two Zones and the Wrong Minute.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis says the third-quarter advance GDP estimate comes out on 29 October at 8:30 AM.

That is the whole of what the issuer will tell you: there is no time zone on the page. Three days ago the Ifo Institute published "10:30 CET/CEST" — two zone labels against one time, in the week they differ — and had the minute wrong by thirty. Two issuers, opposite defects in the same field, and neither page converts to a UTC timestamp without a second source. Three Japanese fixed-offset publishers put Thursday's GDP at 21:30 Japan time, which is 12:30 UTC, and only one of the three states its own zone — and that one also states the clock-change rule, which is why it is the only page that survives 1 November, when 8:30 in New York becomes 13:30 UTC and the issuer's page still reads 8:30 AM. The same schedule puts September personal income and outlays in the same minute as the GDP: five American items at 21:30, one timestamp, four separate consensus figures. Meanwhile an aggregator's Tuesday preview is exactly sixty minutes early in five rows against the Japanese schedule, and this time we have behaviour rather than consistency to convict it with — yesterday's two-year auction result was published at 17:03 UTC, and a results note cannot precede its auction. And the European Central Bank's rate is 2.50 or 2.65 depending on which reader you hold: the deposit facility is 2.50, main refinancing 2.65 and marginal lending 2.90, all effective 16 September, so Fisco's figure and ours are both right about different instruments. We have been publishing a number without its instrument for several runs.

22 of 24 Were Right. All Three Rates Moved 100 Basis Points, and Our Field Warning Did Not Fire.

At 06:15 UTC this desk published that 22 of 24 surveyed economists expected a 100 basis point cut from Turkey, against a bank that had held at 37.00 per cent for five consecutive meetings - 91.67 per cent of forecasters against a realised no-change rate of five of five. The decision landed at 11:00 and the policy rate is 36.00, exactly as the 91.67 per cent said. We also pre-registered a warning that Turkey sets three rates and that a corridor-only move would read as no change on a single-field feed. All three moved in lockstep: one-week repo 37.00 to 36.00, overnight lending 40.00 to 39.00, overnight borrowing 35.50 to 34.50, leaving the corridor exactly where it was at 300 basis points above and 150 below. So every headline-rate feed reports this correctly and there is no field problem - the opposite of Jakarta on Tuesday, where 25 basis points landed on an instrument neither reader named. The finding that costs us the argument: field risk is a property of the institution, not of the event. Turkey has now shifted the whole corridor in parallel twice, in January and today. The right question is not how many rates a bank sets but whether its instruments moved together last time. And the base-rate argument lost: a five-observation hold count whose sample sits entirely before a 178 basis point disinflation step cannot see a regime boundary, and the three monthly prints we published this morning were the better evidence. The issuer's own release was not reachable; its MPC page served the July hold instead.

22 of 24 Economists Say Cut. The Rate Has Not Moved in Five Meetings.

Turkey's central bank announces at 11:00 UTC today and one reader puts 22 of 24 economists on a 100 basis point cut from 37.00 per cent to 36.00 - 91.67 per cent of the sample one way.

The two named institutional forecasts in circulation both sit on the other side: S&P is reported as predicting a hold and Societe Generale a policy pause, though neither page would open for us and both are headline-level only. Against the consensus stands the bank's own record: five consecutive holds at 37.00 since the January cut from 38.00, a realised no-change rate of five of five. So 91.67 per cent of forecasters expect a break with every observation in the recent sample. We cannot test the forecast, only the cost of it being wrong, and that is asymmetric - an expected cut is nearly a non-event for the lira while an unexpected hold is a repricing, which means the branch worth sizing for is the one 8.33 per cent of the sample holds. The disinflation case is real: 31.75 per cent in July, 31.51 in August, 29.73 in September, the last step 178 basis points and the first reading under 30. The case against is the level - the bank raised its own year-end forecast from 26 to 28 per cent in August and September still sits 173 basis points above it. And Turkey sets three rates, with an overnight corridor 300 above and 150 below the policy rate, which is the same field problem that caught us in Jakarta yesterday. The 11:00 hour is now three-sourced and the item is closed.

Seven to Two, and Four of Nine Dissented From Something

The Bank of Japan went to 1.25% by seven votes to two — and two members who voted for the hike separately objected that the Bank's price outlook is too low.

Four of nine dissented from something, in opposite directions, on the morning core CPI fell to 1.7%. None of that is a field on your calendar.