The Current Account Missed by 982 Billion Yen. Two-Thirds of It Is Income, Not Trade, and Tokyo Moved 22 Pips.
Japan's September current account printed a 2,372.3 billion yen surplus against a 3,354.4 billion consensus — a 982.1 billion miss, 29.3% light, and 2,003.5 billion smaller than a year earlier.
Yesterday we published that a filter keyed to the current account expects a 3.3 trillion surplus while one keyed to the trade balance expects a 225.8 billion deficit, opposite signs in the same minute, with only one of two calendars listing the second field. Both halves held — they printed 12.7 times apart rather than our 14.9. But the field that did the work is on neither calendar: primary income fell 1,321.3 billion year on year, 66.0% of the entire collapse, against the goods account's 21.7%, services 10.1% and secondary income 2.3%. The components sum to the headline to the tenth, which is why we built on one publisher, and we say plainly that an internal check is not corroboration. We also correct ourselves: the balance-of-payments goods account and the customs-basis trade balance are different objects, so a 187.5 billion goods deficit cannot be scored against a 225.8 billion expectation. Then the market: the 23:50 minute carried this and a BOJ document with six opinions pressing for faster hikes, and dollar-yen moved 15 pips across the hour. Tokyo's whole session to 13:45 JST was 157.90 to 158.12 — 22 pips, 15.7% of the 140-pip band one house forecast. Also three routes to today's expiry board and three distinct date defects, including a mirror whose address says 10 November over the 9 November board.