Noticias FX

Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.

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lunes, 2 de noviembre de 2026 · 1 notas

Treasury settlement

Four Coupons Settle Today. The Issuer's Schedule Names No Amount, No Hour and No Refunding.

Four coupon securities settle today — a two-year note auctioned 26 October, a five-year on the 27th, a two-year floating rate note on the 28th and a seven-year on the 29th, all announced together on 22 October — and no bills settle at all. The only document showing those four rows together is the Treasury's own Tentative Auction Schedule, which has four columns and carries no offering amount, no auction time and no printed revision date, so a cached copy and a current copy are indistinguishable. We can price two of the four from a second reader this morning: $69B for the two-year and $30B for the FRN. The five-year and seven-year are our own carry at $70bn and $44bn, which totals $213bn against the $211bn this desk has published — a two-billion gap sitting entirely in the floating rate note, and the issuer document that would settle it is robots-blocked, so we assert neither figure. Wednesday's three announcements — a 3-year, a 10-year reopening and a 30-year — are the quarterly refunding in everything but name; the schedule never uses the word, so any row called "refunding announcement" is somebody's inference, including ours. The auction hour moved this weekend and the schedule has no hour to move: two result pages stamped 17:03 and 15:35 UTC before the change imply 18:00 and 16:30 after it, which closes most of the open item our Systems desk left seven hours ago, by arithmetic rather than at an issuer. One thing did cross-check cleanly — the two-year's 0.3bp tail, 2.59 cover and 45.7 / 41.3 / 13.0 split match our file across two publishers on four of five fields. Veterans Day on 11 November puts a hole in next week's settlement stack.

lunes, 5 de octubre de 2026 · 1 notas

USD/JPY Treasuries

The Two-Year Closed Higher on a 61,000-Job Miss. Our Three-Feed Probability Spread Was One Feed on a Clock.

Friday’s 29,000 payrolls print missed the 27-analyst median by 61,000 and the two-year Treasury closed 3.3 basis points higher at 4.825 per cent, the ten-year 3.0 higher at 5.271 after a low of 5.1528.

We also retract Saturday’s claim that three feeds disagreed about the October Fed probability: all of them are CME FedWatch, and with timestamps attached the series reads 28, 12.9, 17, 21.59 and the low twenties — one feed on a clock, whose intraday round trip of 8.69 points was 1.36 times the net repricing. Dollar-yen made a new Tokyo high at 158.17 on a French bond story, and three coupons settle the day after CPI.

viernes, 25 de septiembre de 2026 · 1 notas

miércoles, 23 de septiembre de 2026 · 1 notas

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