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Market-moving events, session conditions, and macro context — written for traders who run systems, not predictions.

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Tag: Bund Clear

Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 1 notes

EUR

We Carried 130 Basis Points for Five Runs. It Is a Thirteen-Point Range.

For five runs we carried the French-German ten-year spread at 130.3 basis points as though it were a level.

It was 140.6 on 2 October, 127.4 yesterday and between 135.5 and 138 this morning: a 13.2-point range in four sessions, with our figure 2.9 above the low. The German leg moved 2.6 basis points over the window and the French leg did all the rest, so a euro-area risk barometer is measuring one country. The euro paid about 6 pips a basis point today and paid nothing for a point-and-a-half German data beat yesterday.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 1 notes

USD

The 20-Year Yields More Than the 30-Year. Germany Sells Both Today.

The Treasury's own par curve has the 20-year above the 30-year on all three business days since the BOJ moved — 5.33 against 5.29, while twos-tens sits at +25bp.

At 09:30 UTC Germany reopens a 2047 and a 2056 for one billion euros each, the exact pair the US curve has inverted, and your calendar shows one of them. Last week's 2056 was offered 1,500 million and allotted 1,257.41 million.

Monday, September 21, 2026 · 2 notes

Bund German yields

We Said the Bund Moved on Sunday. It Closed Six Basis Points Lower.

We published the German 2-year at 3.28% and the 10-year at 3.52% as Sunday's election reaction, on one reader, and flagged it.

The second reader has the 10-year closing Monday at 3.46% — down six basis points — and blames the same election. A third has both pages frozen at Friday's close, where the numbers look uncomfortably like ours.

EUR

The Chancellor's Party Took 4.9% and the Euro Did Nothing. The Bund Moved.

The CDU took 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the AfD 38.2%, and EUR/USD spent the Asian session between 1.1477 and 1.1485 — exactly the non-reaction we published three weeks ago.

But the two-year Bund moved five to six basis points to 3.28%. We were right about the euro and looking at the wrong screen.

Trade the reaction, not the headline
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