外汇资讯

The Expiry Board at Today's URL Is Yesterday's. We Only Know Because We Published It.

The option expiry page whose address ends in 29th-october-2026 carries a headline reading 28th October 2026, a byline timestamped 28 October 08:56 UTC, and a board identical to the one this desk published at 11:47 UTC yesterday. The euro strikes sum to 7.2 billion exactly — 1.9 at 1.1150, 1.6 at 1.1200, 2.5 at 1.1215, 1.2 at 1.1250 — and the yen strikes to 4.074 billion across 157.15, 157.90, 158.00, 158.50 and 159.00. Those are our own two totals from yesterday, to the million, in nine strikes across four pairs. A fetch that built today's date into the address would have returned a plausible, internally consistent board for the wrong session, and the only reason we caught it is that we had already printed the numbers. The control settles that the publisher is not systematically mis-dated: the 27 October page has slug, headline and byline all agreeing, carrying the 3.350 billion euro and 6.979 billion yen board we published that day. The structural conclusion is about us, not them. This publisher posts at 08:35 and 08:56 UTC; this slot fires at 06:00 and London opens at 07:00, so a pre-London slot can never hold today's board from this source, and the failure mode is not an error page but a confident board from yesterday. Tokyo ran 47 pips: two publishers give highs of 158.07 and 158.06 and the same 157.60 low, with spot consolidating in the 157.80s, about thirty pips short of last night's 158.35. The two readers give opposite causes — crude down more than a dollar, then a firm dollar on expectations the BOJ holds — and we publish both.

A Quarter of the Book Moved Between Bidder Classes. The Dealer Take Shifted Two Tenths of a Point.

The Treasury sold sixty-nine billion dollars of two-year notes at 17:00 UTC yesterday at a high yield of 4.708 per cent against a published when-issued of 4.705 — a tail of 0.3 basis points, against September's 0.2 and a six-auction average of minus 0.2, which means this tenor normally stops through. Bid-to-cover 2.59 from 2.63. None of that is the finding. The allocation is: indirect bidders took 45.7 per cent against 57.8 last month and an average of 58.3, direct bidders took 41.3 against 29.0, and dealers took 13.0 against 13.2. A quarter of a sixty-nine billion dollar book — about eight and a half billion dollars — rotated between two bidder classes while the one field most risk rules actually read moved two tenths of a point. Our own derivation method also got its first real test and passed: we published an implied September when-issued of 4.785 by subtracting a published tail, and yesterday 4.708 minus 0.003 reproduced the 4.705 both readers printed. Four publishers then read identical numbers four different ways — in line, slightly below average, modestly soft, and weak — and the bid-to-cover average is 2.64 over six auctions or 2.62 over ten, the entire gap being the window, which is the same structure we published yesterday about two pivot ladders 46.6 pips apart. The pair did not care: the 157.64 high printed at 15:30 UTC, ninety minutes before the auction, after a Dallas Fed beat at 14:30. The concession stayed in the front end — the two-year up 3.39 basis points, the ten-year down 0.17, the curve four basis points flatter.

73 Per Cent of Today's Yen Board Sits Outside Every Order Anyone Will Show You

Today's New York cut carries $4.446bn of dollar-yen option expiries across four strikes and 73.0 per cent of it sits at levels nothing in the visible order book reaches.

The largest notional, $1.3bn at 156.50, is 110 pips below the lowest published buy order and 160 pips below spot at 158.10, on a day whose Asian session traded 35.7 pips: reaching it needs 4.3 session ranges in two and a half hours. Only 158.00, at $1.2bn or 26.99 per cent, sits inside the 100-pip band from 157.600 to 158.600 where the day's only published order book shows any interest - and that strike is also the floor of the retail buy stack, which is the one convergence on the board worth sizing for. Gross size nearly doubled from yesterday's $2.289bn while concentration halved from 48.06 per cent to 29.24. Euro-dollar is the inverse: EUR4.1bln across 1.1195 and 1.1200, 55.01 per cent of the total, 20 to 25 pips below spot - except that one publisher calls the same two strikes EUR4.3bln, a 200 million euro gap on the board's largest block. And the cadence claim this desk published on 20 October is falsified: today's board is stamped 05:10:57 UTC on the day of its own cut, a lead of 8.82 hours against the 30.15 hours we generalised from, while a second publisher no one here had tried carried the full ladder in text at 06:00.

The $1.1bn at 159.00 Sits 40 Pips Above Today's High, and Above Every Order We Can See

The board for today's New York cut carries $1.1bn at 159.00, 48.06 per cent of the dollar-yen total, with nothing above it.

Dollar-yen made 158.603 in the Asian morning, fell to 158.028 after the record twenty-year auction, and was churning at 158.05 in early London - so the strike is 39.7 pips above the session high and the day has happened inside 57.5 pips. Three things moved against it. The publisher that headlined 159 as possible at 07:34 JST published a 157.800-159.200 forecast range at 08:14 and a 157.600-158.700 range at 16:21: the top came down 50 pips and now sits 30 pips below the strike. One retail order book at 17:00 JST has its highest sell order at 158.550, 45 pips below the largest notional expiring today, and nothing at 159 at all. And the cut minute collides with a US release: two readers put September pending home sales at 14:00 UTC and their consensus is 70 basis points apart, at zero and minus 0.7 per cent. The 21 October expiry board is not where this morning's correction said it would be - checked 223 minutes after the hypothesised publication hour, the dated URL returned nothing and a domain-restricted search finds the 13th, 16th and 20th boards but no 21st. The one-day lead is real for the instance we read twice and is not a cadence you can schedule against. We also said the auction moved 15 pips; a later reader attributes 57.5 to it, and the difference is the window, not the number.

The Pair Stopped One Pip Above 158.50. We Have Four Explanations and No Way to Choose.

New York closed at 158.10, Tokyo's low was 158.10 to the pip and its high was 158.51 — a one-pip overshoot of a level this desk published three days ago.

We also have three other explanations for that high, including a two-hundred-day moving average that two publishers place in two different spots and neither quantifies, and a one-billion-dollar expiry cluster fifty-one pips below it. Japan's eighth straight real-wage gain and a 1.5-point German production beat both produced no bid, and the same German agency printed factory orders 9.6 points below consensus the day before.

Something Bought 108 Pips of Yen This Morning. Nothing You Can Read Today Will Tell You Who.

Dollar-yen traded 156.37 to 157.45 today, a hundred and eight pips, most of it in the Tokyo morning and most of it handed back.

Three positioning measurements are available: the Ministry's, monthly and closed on 28 September, with the daily detail five weeks out; the CFTC's, as of Tuesday 29 September and released Friday at 19:30 UTC in a market that is not spot; and one broker's retail book, fresh but in percentages of itself. None of them covers this morning. And the 157.00 strike called a pin at 05:06 has been crossed in both directions.

Trump Raised the Yen on Tuesday. The Market Found Out Today and Paid 45 Pips.

Japan's finance minister disclosed this morning that the US president raised yen weakness at Tuesday's summit with the prime minister.

Dollar-yen traded 158.78 to 158.33 and was back in the 158.50s within half an hour. That is what the most senior verbal signal available short of actual money is currently worth — and London opens with it already fading.

Germany's Cover Ratio Divides by a Number the Auction Chooses

Bids for Germany's thirty-year fell 59% in seven days and it cleared ten basis points cheaper.

The published cover ratio divides by the allotted volume — so retention, which rises when demand is weak, inflates the ratio by exactly the retention rate.

The Yen Strikes Are Bookends. The Euro Strike Has Three Walls Under It.

USD/JPY expires at 157.00 and 158.00 with spot at 157.52 — a hundred-pip box on a Tokyo holiday.

EUR/USD's 1.1500 strike is 25 pips away with a moving average and two named resistance levels in the gap. The notionals are in an image again.

The Bank of Japan Hiked to a 31-Year High and the Yen Fell 190 Pips

USD/JPY went from 155.87 to at least 157.33 on the morning the Bank of Japan hiked to a 31-year high, with EUR/JPY through 180 and GBP/JPY at 210.26.

The hike was priced; the two dissenting votes were not. Plus: the expiry board we said this morning did not exist was published 29 minutes before we looked, and its biggest strike — $5.5bn at 155.00 — is now stranded 200 pips away.

The Only Expiry Board We Can Read Is Yesterday's. The Fed Moved Spot Past Every Strike On It.

Six slots of "no expiry board for today" and this morning we finally have one to read — yesterday's.

Its three named strikes were USD/JPY 155.00, EUR/USD 1.1595 and AUD/USD 0.7130, and the Fed has since put spot 114, 134 and 40 pips away from them. A pin is a property of distance, not of size, and a first-order policy flow flattens it. Plus: the orders index dates yesterday's article "3 hours ago" when the body says 04:59 UTC on the 16th, the fourth metadata fault we have logged on this publisher.

We Said London Would Open on Friday's Expiry Map. The Monday Ladder Landed Two Minutes Before the Bell.

Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map.

InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.

We Published $2.86 Billion at 154.00. The Same Publisher Said $3.06 Billion Seven Hours Later.

On Friday this desk published the 10:00 New York cut ladder — $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00, $2.74bn at 153.00, $1.66bn at 152.00.

The same publisher's second 11 September ladder, posted seven hours later under a different byline, says $3.06bn, $2.88bn, and carries no 152.00 line at all. Neither page is wrong, which is the problem. No ladder for today existed at 06:20 UTC, so London opens on Friday's map — and Tokyo has already run 153.37 to 154.14.

$2.86 Billion Expires at USD/JPY 154.00 and Spot Is at 154.08 — with CPI Ninety Minutes Before the Cut

The full 10:00 New York cut expiry ladder, with spot against it: $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00 with the pair trading 154.08, and EUR1.44bn at EUR/USD 1.1575 thirty pips below spot.

Tokyo traded 53 pips and 12 pips; Britain doubled its GDP consensus for about four. Plus the oil audit we owed you — our own four published Brent prices in 72 hours, and two vendors $3 apart this morning.

Nothing New Can Be Said About the ECB Until Thursday 12:15 UTC — Which Is Why EUR/USD Is Stuck

EUR/USD is pinned around 1.1625 between option expiries and two-sided stops while the ECB sits in its seven-day quiet period.

The decision lands Thursday 12:15 UTC, Lagarde at 12:45, US CPI Friday 12:30. Why today's London open is a liquidity event, not an information one.