The RBA Hiked to 4.85. Three of Nine Voted Against, and No Probability Feed Quotes That.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent from 4.60 at 03:30 UTC — the outcome four probability feeds called correctly at 81, 83, 88 and about 80 per cent.
Three of its nine members voted against it. Media Release 2026-30 publishes the split in terms: by majority, six members voted for 25 basis points to 4.85 and three voted to leave it unchanged at 4.60, with no member named. No probability feed we know of quotes a vote margin, so every reader who was correctly positioned for the hike was positioned for the wrong object. The substantive revision is a date, not a level: inflation is now not expected to reach the top of the 2–3 per cent band until late 2027, which the release itself calls around three quarters later than previously forecast, and is expected above 3 per cent for the coming year. The guidance contains no direction at all — attentive to the data, well placed to respond, continue to do what it considers necessary — and an Australian broadcaster's door-open-to-more-hikes reading is a secondary gloss on language the issuer kept neutral. The unemployment revision carries no number. And the issuer stamped the release "Date 3 November 2026" with no time and no time zone, while the Bank's own news index does not list it and was last modified in April: issuer quality is per page, not per institution. No press-conference content and no post-decision Australian dollar level are published, because both pages failed to open.