The Issuer Says 4.3. Two Vendors Say 3.9 Against a Consensus of 4.2. The Surprise Changes Sign.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics says the monthly consumer price index rose 4.3 per cent in the twelve months to September, up from 4.0 per cent.
Two publishers put that same row at 3.9 per cent against a consensus of 4.2, with the prior correctly at 4.0 — so a system that scores surprises by subtracting consensus from actual recorded a 0.3-point miss where the issuer gives a 0.1-point beat. The sign is opposite and nothing in the row looks broken, because 3.9 is not a random error: it is the quarterly annual figure, which both tables also carry correctly one row away. Yesterday this desk published that the 3.9-versus-4.2 consensus dispute was two releases in one minute rather than a disagreement, and that a mislabelled series would show no symptom because the two trimmed means agreed at 3.6. The print produced three symptoms in twenty minutes. On the only measure the Reserve Bank of Australia targets, one publisher headlined 3.6 and dead in line while the other headlined 3.7, above forecasts, hike case firming — same release, same minute, opposite verdicts — and the Bureau's own 3.6 matches the first publisher's quarterly row and neither publisher's monthly row. August's prior was revised to 3.5 and both vendors still carry 3.6. We publish the band and refuse the tenth. None of it moved the price: swaps went above 80 per cent for a November hike, Bullock said inflation will run above the August forecasts, and the Australian dollar rallied and stalled.