Daily Market Notes
Tokyo Opens Eleven Pips From Friday's Close. Three Feeds Disagree About Whether Anything Was Repriced.
Dollar-yen opens the Tokyo week in the 157.80s, about eleven pips from Friday's close, after a 29,000 payrolls print missed all seven consensus values this desk collected — the closest by 31,000. The pair fell 65 pips and erased all of it as the ten-year round-tripped from 5.22 to 5.1549 and back to 5.296. Three feeds now publish three different October Fed probabilities: 77 per cent priced for a hold, ‘the 20 per cent range’, and a fall from 28 to below 13. The 91-pip implied move we published was delivered — 96 pips on the narrow reading of Friday's range, 127 on the wide one. And the option-vol curve finally has a second reader, agreeing to 0.025 of a vol point.