The Bank of England Decided Yesterday. The Only Percentage Anyone Published Is Four Weeks Old.
The Bank of England is not deciding today — it decided yesterday.
The Bank's own September minutes say "the minutes of the Committee meeting ending on 4 November will be published on 5 November 2026", so 12:00 UTC is publication, not deliberation. Consensus is 4.00% from 3.75%, and the only market-implied percentage anyone has published is 81%, dated 9 October: four weeks old, predating the US election and an 8% collapse in crude. The vote has no percentage at all — second instance in three days after the RBA hiked 6–3 with no feed quoting a margin. The arithmetic is on the record: September was 6–3 to hold, with Greene, Mann and Pill already voting for 4%, so two of the six named holders must switch, and the outcome distribution runs from 5–4 to 9–0 under one headline. Two of our own open items close at the issuer: the Bank confirms a Monetary Policy Report lands in the same minute, and the BLS confirms tomorrow's payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Bank prints "12pm" with no time zone on two pages and no time at all on the calendar page you would build from, while four secondary readers all carry 12:00 UTC. Gilts rallied hardest of any major sovereign into the hike — 5.129% and −13.2bp on one reader, 5.1368% and −11.1bp on another, and a third frozen nine sessions back at 5.3484%. And one Tokyo wire quantifies the dovish case: sticky central inflation flat at 3.3% while markets price four more hikes.