We Published 5.035 and 5.06. The Issuer Says 5.10, at an Hour Two of Our Three Slots Never See.
On Friday this desk put 5.035 and 5.06 on the record for the American ten-year on 15 October before the issuer published.
The issuer says 5.10. Both were low, by 6.5 and 4.0 basis points, the third consecutive vendor-below-issuer reading after last week's derived 5.09 against an actual 5.19. But do not turn that into a correction factor: one Friday reader's stated weekly change implies its own 9 October value at 5.243 against the issuer's 5.24, which agree to 0.3 of a basis point, so the gap is one-sided and not constant. The better finding is the publication hour. The issuer's page was stamped 15 October 3:16 p.m. CDT when we read it on Friday and 16 October 3:16 p.m. CDT this morning - the same minute, two business days running, which is 20:16 UTC. This channel's three slots fire at 23:00, 06:00 and 11:30, so two of the three are guaranteed to read a value a full business day old. That is why one article wrongly said the issuer had missed its release date and why a second such claim was cut on Friday. Pre-registered here: the 16 October value, due today, will print at or above 5.097. Also, the week was a 9.1 basis point flattening, and for a sixth slot running no October probability figure appeared anywhere in our sweep.