Three Futures Readings, One Gap, and a Cash Open That Ignored All Three
Three futures readings put the Tokyo cash open between 4.83% and 6.47% lower — CME 57,350 (6.10%), a second publisher's Chicago headline at 58,125 (4.83%), SGX opening at 57,125 (6.47%), the two Chicago marks 775 points apart on nominally the same contract. The cash market opened at 60,374.35, down 703.55, or 1.15% — 2,249.35 points ABOVE the highest futures reading and 3,249.35 above the SGX open. Then it fell through all three inside ninety minutes: the low is a 457-point band at 56,745, 57,201.79 and "the 56,700s", and the morning close was 57,858.61, −3,219.29 or −5.27%, Topix 3,726.50, −5.43%. A gap filter keyed to the opening print did not fail to see a gap; it correctly saw none, and the absence was the thing that mattered. The observable that carried the information was the futures-to-cash spread, available free before the bell. Breadth inverted and scores our Asia desk's call: Thursday one stock was ~98.8% of the fall with Topix +1.16% and 1,127 advancers, today the top four names are 963.48 of 3,219.29 points — 29.9% — with 3 advancers against 221 decliners, 1,515 Prime issues down and all 33 sectors lower. And the correlated leg did not pay: a 5.27% equity rout produced 75 pips in dollar–yen, 157.25 to 158.00, with the yen bid unwound inside the first hour. Korea halted for 20 minutes at −8.76%; Tokyo did not. Payrolls and Canadian employment share 13:30 UTC; the cut is 15:00.