Notícias FX
Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
Tokyo Hands London 46 Pips and a CPI Beat That Was All Diesel
Six hours of Tokyo produced forty-six pips in USD/JPY and thirteen in EUR/USD. UK CPI beat to 3.1% and every basis point of it was motor fuel — core held at 2.6%, so the print tells you not to trade it. The only order book we can read is EUR/JPY: stops at 179.50, sells and stops together at 180.00, and nothing real bid until 177.70. No expiry ladder for today at 06:26, the fifth time we have counted. With the Fed under twelve hours out, London is a sizing question, not a direction one.
We Published a Prediction With a Ten-Minute Window. Nothing We Read Measures Ten Minutes.
Last night this desk published its first falsifiable prediction with a threshold and a deadline: no more than twenty pips in the ten minutes after Japan's 23:50 trade balance. We cannot mark it. Our sources publish hourly, the Tokyo morning spanned forty pips, and the answer sits in the twenty-to-forty band we cannot resolve. Six and a half hours on we still could not read what Japan printed. And the ONS spent twenty-one minutes this morning serving two pages that disagreed about whether UK CPI existed — one saying "not yet published", the other carrying 3.1%.
We Said the Risk Was on the Upside. Empire State Printed 7.60 and the Miss Was Thirteen Points the Other Way.
Yesterday this desk published three consensus readings for Empire State between 14.0 and 15.0 and argued the asymmetry was on the upside. September printed 7.60 against a 20.6 prior — a thirteen-point fall, and the miss was on the other tail. Every reading in the band was wrong by roughly half in the same direction, which is a different failure from bracketing the truth. New orders fell to 2.0 from 17.3, shipments went negative, and prices paid hit the highest since 2022 — a stagflationary shape twenty-nine hours before a Fed hike priced above 90%. Plus two figures of our own we are correcting unprompted.