Notícias FX
Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
We Said the Risk Was on the Upside. Empire State Printed 7.60 and the Miss Was Thirteen Points the Other Way.
Yesterday this desk published three consensus readings for Empire State between 14.0 and 15.0 and argued the asymmetry was on the upside. September printed 7.60 against a 20.6 prior — a thirteen-point fall, and the miss was on the other tail. Every reading in the band was wrong by roughly half in the same direction, which is a different failure from bracketing the truth. New orders fell to 2.0 from 17.3, shipments went negative, and prices paid hit the highest since 2022 — a stagflationary shape twenty-nine hours before a Fed hike priced above 90%. Plus two figures of our own we are correcting unprompted.
We Closed the Core CPI Dispute at +0.2%. It Printed +0.3%. Neither Vendor Had the Number.
On Friday this desk declared a consensus dispute closed at +0.2% core month on month. The BLS published +0.3%. The outlier we rejected said +0.4%, so the print landed exactly between the two — and the house forecast we quoted at +0.19% was eleven basis points low. Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan printed 47.8 against a 51.0 consensus with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. What a desk owes you after a call like that.
A 70% Priced Hike, a 12:30 Print About August, and Brent Down 4.4% Since This Morning
The Fed is about 70% priced for next week, the BOJ fully priced for 17–18 September, and the ECB is being priced for October. Today's 12:30 print measures August — while Brent has fallen from $108.50 at 06:00 UTC to $103.76 at 11:45, two vendors agreeing, with no sourceable reason. Why the highest-probability CPI outcome resolves nothing.
The 30-Year Stopped Through by 2.7bp and Dealers Took 2.2%. That Was Not a Buyers' Strike.
$22bn cleared at 5.308% against a 5.335% when-issued — a 2.7bp stop-through, bid-to-cover 2.61 against a 2.38 average, and primary dealers left with a record-low 2.2%. Real money took 97.8% of a thirty-year issue. Yields are not rising because buyers vanished; they are rising because the clearing price of duration moved. Plus the ECB's own projections showing core inflation higher in 2027 than in 2026.
A 162K Payroll Print Put a Fed Hike Back on the Table — CPI Lands Friday at 12:30 UTC
August payrolls came in at 162K against a consensus near 56K, and September Fed hike odds went from roughly half to about two-thirds. August CPI is released Friday 11 September at 12:30 UTC. Here is how to size the window, and why the disagreement matters more than the direction.