相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
Euro area manufacturing printed 52.7 — a beat on one feed, exactly in line on a second, and a six-tenths miss against the house forecast we refused to publish as a consensus.
Three of our four splits resolved; the one-tenth gap was the only one that mattered.
Richmond printed −2 against forecasts of 2 and 5 — so the miss is four points or seven, a 75% difference on a print nobody disputes.
Euro area confidence is worse: the actual itself has three published values, −16.52, −16.5 and −17. We flagged the prior and the danger was in the actual column too. A feed dispute does not corrupt the level, it corrupts the surprise — and four more are on today's board.