FX ニュース

The RBNZ Forecasts 4.4 Per Cent Inflation for December. It Held at 2.75, Four Votes to Three.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 2.75 per cent at 01:00 UTC today, four votes to three, against money-market pricing one reader put at about 90 per cent for a hike to 3.00 — and in the same statement it forecasts inflation rising to 4.4 per cent in the December quarter. Seven hours before the decision this desk published two numbers: the market's near-certainty of 3.00, and the bank's own September projection of 2.81 for December. Neither was right. But one missed by twenty-five basis points and the other by six, and the closer one was the issuer's own published track, sitting in a document anybody could read six weeks early. Three members — Conway, Gourley and Silk — voted for the hike, so this is a hold one vote from a move, and the guidance is harder than the decision: Governor Breman says OCR increases at coming meetings are highly likely, and the Committee says the next six weeks could meaningfully change the stance in either direction. We will not tell you where the kiwi is: one reader gives 0.56069 and minus 1.28 per cent on a page whose own timestamp is incoherent, a second publisher's sub-0.5600 headline would not open, and the bank's own release page errored, so every Reserve Bank figure here is a secondary reading. London gets a 157.79–158.04 dollar–yen and a thirteen-pip euro range in front of a Budget at around 12:30 and the Fed at 18:00.

22 of 24 Were Right. All Three Rates Moved 100 Basis Points, and Our Field Warning Did Not Fire.

At 06:15 UTC this desk published that 22 of 24 surveyed economists expected a 100 basis point cut from Turkey, against a bank that had held at 37.00 per cent for five consecutive meetings - 91.67 per cent of forecasters against a realised no-change rate of five of five. The decision landed at 11:00 and the policy rate is 36.00, exactly as the 91.67 per cent said. We also pre-registered a warning that Turkey sets three rates and that a corridor-only move would read as no change on a single-field feed. All three moved in lockstep: one-week repo 37.00 to 36.00, overnight lending 40.00 to 39.00, overnight borrowing 35.50 to 34.50, leaving the corridor exactly where it was at 300 basis points above and 150 below. So every headline-rate feed reports this correctly and there is no field problem - the opposite of Jakarta on Tuesday, where 25 basis points landed on an instrument neither reader named. The finding that costs us the argument: field risk is a property of the institution, not of the event. Turkey has now shifted the whole corridor in parallel twice, in January and today. The right question is not how many rates a bank sets but whether its instruments moved together last time. And the base-rate argument lost: a five-observation hold count whose sample sits entirely before a 178 basis point disinflation step cannot see a regime boundary, and the three monthly prints we published this morning were the better evidence. The issuer's own release was not reachable; its MPC page served the July hold instead.

22 of 24 Economists Say Cut. The Rate Has Not Moved in Five Meetings.

Turkey's central bank announces at 11:00 UTC today and one reader puts 22 of 24 economists on a 100 basis point cut from 37.00 per cent to 36.00 - 91.67 per cent of the sample one way.

The two named institutional forecasts in circulation both sit on the other side: S&P is reported as predicting a hold and Societe Generale a policy pause, though neither page would open for us and both are headline-level only. Against the consensus stands the bank's own record: five consecutive holds at 37.00 since the January cut from 38.00, a realised no-change rate of five of five. So 91.67 per cent of forecasters expect a break with every observation in the recent sample. We cannot test the forecast, only the cost of it being wrong, and that is asymmetric - an expected cut is nearly a non-event for the lira while an unexpected hold is a repricing, which means the branch worth sizing for is the one 8.33 per cent of the sample holds. The disinflation case is real: 31.75 per cent in July, 31.51 in August, 29.73 in September, the last step 178 basis points and the first reading under 30. The case against is the level - the bank raised its own year-end forecast from 26 to 28 per cent in August and September still sits 173 basis points above it. And Turkey sets three rates, with an overnight corridor 300 above and 150 below the policy rate, which is the same field problem that caught us in Jakarta yesterday. The 11:00 hour is now three-sourced and the item is closed.

We Carried a 175 Basis Point Cut for Six Runs. Three Readers Say 100 and Two Houses Say Zero.

This desk has carried a 175 basis point CBRT cut in its week-ahead notes for six consecutive runs, sourced to one entry from 16 October with no time, no timezone and no second reader.

Thursday's decision is 24 hours away and the second reader finally exists - three of them, and none says 175. The policy rate is 37.00 per cent on the one-week repo, given by three independent readers. A 175 basis point cut lands at 35.25 per cent, a level nothing in today's sweep mentions. A 100 basis point cut lands at 36.00, which is what a Turkish daily says most economists expect, what the central bank's own September Survey of Market Participants expected, and what a European bank calls the consensus it is positioned against. Two named houses expect no cut at all. So the figure we carried is not the high end of a range, it is outside the range: 75 basis points beyond the consensus and 175 beyond the two houses at zero. It is dropped. Two further findings. The December destination of 35 per cent requires 200 basis points from 37, not the 100 quoted alongside it, so it silently presupposes the October cut two houses say will not happen. And our only source for the Goldman view gives the January easing as 100 basis points in one place and 300 in another. The 11:00 UTC decision time rests on the same entry whose number we just retracted, so it is unconfirmed too.

Unanimous, Fully Priced, and the Aussie Finished 33 Pips Lower. The Statement and the Governor Did Not Agree.

The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60% at 04:30 UTC, unanimously, with money markets at 93% going in.

An hour later Governor Bullock said maybe no more rises are needed — and AUD/USD finished Tokyo at 0.6978, 33 pips below where it stood before the hike. The written statement kept the tightening bias; the Governor withdrew it. And we refused to publish a hike probability yesterday: the series ended at 93%, so the refusal was right.

The ECB's 25 Basis Points Is Priced — So Today's Real Release Is the Staff Projections at 12:45 UTC

A 25bp hike to 2.50% at 12:15 UTC is near-unanimous, so the decision is not the release.

What is undecided is what the new staff projections say about inflation the ECB's own economists attribute to supply — and which of two numbers, both called core and 20bp apart, the Governing Council leans on. EUR/USD did eleven pips in Tokyo waiting.