FX ニュース
相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
The Headline Beat Both Our Consensus Figures. The Core We Barely Mentioned Was Exact.
Euro-area flash inflation printed 3.8 per cent against the 3.7 we published and the 3.6 one publisher carried — so the tenth of a point we logged as an open item was the same size as the smaller miss and half the larger. Core printed 2.5, exactly the figure we published and then ignored. Which field your news filter reads decides whether today was an event at all. Payrolls at 12:30 now has five consensus values, and the July prior the market traded on has been revised from minus 23,000 to plus 21,000 — a sign flip. One calendar's ADP cell has read as a future event for 47 hours and 43 minutes.
The Surprise Was Three Thousand Claims. The Gap Between Two Published Actuals Is Also Three Thousand.
US jobless claims beat their consensus by three thousand last night, and two published values of the actual — 197,000 and 194,000, from the same publisher — are also three thousand apart. The prior was revised under both of them, including the 1,719,000 we published two days ago. Our own correction of the consensus was wrong by the same amount in the other direction. ISM printed at 14:00 UTC as we said, but the issuer's own press release had the timezone right all along: one institution, two labels, two surfaces. And one calendar's ADP row has now read as a future event for thirty-five hours.