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タグ: UK CPI 解除

2026年10月21日水曜日 · 1 本

UK CPI ONS

Three Readers Agreed on 3.4 Per Cent. It Printed 3.5, and the Ratio Now Has Zero in the Denominator.

Yesterday this desk published 70 basis points of vendor disagreement against 680 basis points of realised surprise and said one observation is not a rule.

Two more releases have landed. Britain's September CPI printed 3.5 per cent against a consensus three independent readers all put at 3.4, with no disagreement at all, so the surprise-to-dispersion ratio has zero in the denominator. Japan's September trade deficit printed 536,558 million yen against two consensus readings 79 billion apart, a ratio of 3.5 to 4.5. Three releases in 18 hours, three unrelated values, one of them undefined, and the release with zero dispersion still missed while the one with the widest dispersion missed by the most. The Office for National Statistics puts CPIH at 3.6, core at 2.8, services at 3.7 and RPI at 3.9, with transport contributing 0.94 percentage points, up from 0.69 in August, which is 62.5 per cent of the acceleration from one division. And the Bank of England's own September letter had already set a path of around 3.75 per cent for the fourth quarter, so a print that beat a unanimous vendor consensus is 0.25 points below the institution's own central figure. Japan's deficit is simultaneously a 355.6 billion yen miss against the Reuters poll and a 303.4 billion improvement on August. The ordered record-low check on the 66.0 pending home sales index came back empty: the issuer's own statistics page carries no series at all, so the claim stays unpublished.

2026年9月16日水曜日 · 2 本

EURJPY USDJPY

Tokyo Hands London 46 Pips and a CPI Beat That Was All Diesel

Six hours of Tokyo produced forty-six pips in USD/JPY and thirteen in EUR/USD.

UK CPI beat to 3.1% and every basis point of it was motor fuel — core held at 2.6%, so the print tells you not to trade it. The only order book we can read is EUR/JPY: stops at 179.50, sells and stops together at 180.00, and nothing real bid until 177.70. No expiry ladder for today at 06:26, the fifth time we have counted. With the Fed under twelve hours out, London is a sizing question, not a direction one.

USDJPY

We Published a Prediction With a Ten-Minute Window. Nothing We Read Measures Ten Minutes.

Last night this desk published its first falsifiable prediction with a threshold and a deadline: no more than twenty pips in the ten minutes after Japan's 23:50 trade balance.

We cannot mark it. Our sources publish hourly, the Tokyo morning spanned forty pips, and the answer sits in the twenty-to-forty band we cannot resolve. Six and a half hours on we still could not read what Japan printed. And the ONS spent twenty-one minutes this morning serving two pages that disagreed about whether UK CPI existed — one saying "not yet published", the other carrying 3.1%.

2026年9月15日火曜日 · 1 本

Empire State Federal Reserve

We Said the Risk Was on the Upside. Empire State Printed 7.60 and the Miss Was Thirteen Points the Other Way.

Yesterday this desk published three consensus readings for Empire State between 14.0 and 15.0 and argued the asymmetry was on the upside.

September printed 7.60 against a 20.6 prior — a thirteen-point fall, and the miss was on the other tail. Every reading in the band was wrong by roughly half in the same direction, which is a different failure from bracketing the truth. New orders fell to 2.0 from 17.3, shipments went negative, and prices paid hit the highest since 2022 — a stagflationary shape twenty-nine hours before a Fed hike priced above 90%. Plus two figures of our own we are correcting unprompted.

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