FX ニュース

Six Priors Moved in Six and a Half Hours. Japan's Acceleration Is a Third Smaller Than It Reads.

Japan's September CPI landed at 23:30 UTC on 22 October and Britain's September retail sales at 06:00 UTC today - six and a half hours apart - and between them they revised six of the seven prior figures they carried, every one upward. In Japan that shrinks the story: core printed 2.1 per cent, in line, against a prior three of four readers publish as 1.7 and one revises to 1.8, so the monthly acceleration is 0.3 points rather than 0.4 and the published-prior version overstates it by 33.3 per cent. Core-core printed 2.4 against 2.3 expected, and it is the only field in the release that surprised - the one no headline carries, while the two a single-value news filter is likeliest to read both came in exactly on consensus. In Britain the revisions enlarge the story: all four fields missed, mean absolute miss 0.45 points and the largest 0.7 in the ex-fuel year-on-year field no headline leads with, while all four August bases were marked up by a total of 1.0 point, making the headline monthly swing 1.1 points against the 0.9 the unrevised base gives. A revision has no sign preference. We also close our own seven-slot open item: the figure pair we carried as plus 2.1 against plus 1.7 was a consensus and a prior, never two forecasts, and the basket is all items less fresh food - fresh food only, not energy. Every figure we carry needs its field, basket and vintage attached when it is written down.

Canada's Prior Is Minus 0.1 and Plus 0.2. The Consensus Only Fits One of Them.

Statistics Canada publishes September CPI at 12:30 UTC and the prior you are trading against exists in two versions.

The agency's own August release says the CPI fell 0.1 per cent month over month and, seasonally adjusted, rose 0.2 per cent - both sentences in the same document. Every preview in this morning's sweep prints minus 0.1 as the prior and plus 0.2 as the consensus, which reads as a 30 basis point acceleration. If the forecasters mean the adjusted series, plus 0.2 against plus 0.2 is no acceleration at all, and nobody publishing the consensus says which series it is for. Headline consensus is 3.2 per cent year on year against 3.0. Four numbers are called core for August and they span 70 basis points - CPI-common 2.6, CPI-trim 1.9, CPI-median 2.0, ex food and energy 2.4 - and the only one with a September consensus is the one the Bank of Canada does not target, while the three it watches have no number to beat before the October 28 decision. Also: the two figures this desk fought over five weeks ago, 3.0 and minus 0.1, are now the uncontested prior at four houses, which is how a vendor dispute actually ends. And one publisher priced the Bank of Canada's year end twice in three hours, at nearly 23 basis points and at 34, eleven basis points apart.

July Printed 4.7%. It Is Now 4.3%, and Three Records Were Built on the Old Number.

Yesterday we published Japan's eighth straight real-wage gain.

The same release restated five July fields: nominal cash earnings 4.7% to 4.3%, real wages 2.4% to 2.0%, regular pay 4.1% to 3.8%, special payments 6.3% to 5.3% - and overtime 3.1% UP to 4.5%. Three superlatives - fastest since January 1997, biggest since May 2021, fastest since April 1992 - were attached to numbers that no longer exist, and the second-month slowdown everyone is discussing is 44.4% smaller measured from the restated base. August beat consensus by a tenth, and the December Bank of Japan reading now spans 71 to 90 per cent depending on the feed.

The Chicago Fed Printed −0.04. Whether It Beat the Prior Depends on Your Feed.

August printed −0.04 at 12:30 UTC.

One feed scores that above a prior of −0.08; the release itself carries July restated to +0.08, which makes the same print twelve hundredths below; a third feed still shows no actual ten hours later. The category table sums to +0.08 exactly, so the revision is derived, not asserted.