FX ニュース
相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
155.00 Held on the Third Attempt. At 23:50 Tokyo Finally Gets a Japanese Number.
USD/JPY has taken 155.00 three times in thirty-six hours. The first two were handed straight back inside the session; the third stuck — New York closed 155.10, seventy-five sen up, on a 154.21–155.24 range, with the ten-year at a nineteen-year 5.0390% and the Dow down 399. Three sessions running, every link in the yen's chain has been American. At 23:50 UTC Japan finally supplies its own numbers — trade balance, exports, imports and core machinery orders in one minute — and on the evidence of the last three sessions Tokyo will not trade a single one of them. We are putting that in writing so it can be marked.
Your Week-Ahead Table Has the Wrong Man Chairing Wednesday. Ours Had the Hours Wrong Too.
Two vendor calendars put Jerome Powell at Wednesday's FOMC press conference. The Federal Reserve's own site names Kevin Warsh as Chairman and lists Powell separately as a sitting governor — which is exactly why a filter keyed on the name keeps matching. One table still has the Bank of Japan on hold against a survey at 97% for a hike. And our own fifty-one-hour gap between the two decisions is thirty-three. Plus an empty European calendar into the London open.
USD/JPY Breaks 154 Before the BOJ Even Meets — What a Pre-Priced Hike Does to Your System
USD/JPY traded below 154 in Tokyo hours, the yen's strongest level since late February, with a 25bp BOJ hike on 18 September already largely priced. Here is what that leaves to trade, and why a five-month trend filter is the wrong tool this week.