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Hoy · 2 notas

Seven Date Fields Failed This Morning. Four of the Events They Describe Fire Before Tonight.

We set out to build an event map for the rest of today — US CPI at 13:30 UTC, the New York option cut at 15:00, a Dallas Fed speech, and a 42 billion dollar ten-year auction at 18:00 — and instead found seven date or time fields that are wrong, missing, stale or contradictory, four of them attached to events that fire before tonight. Three dated expiry routes all returned client errors at the correct slot, which kills yesterday's "wrong slot" explanation and makes this the fifth session running with no board; we say plainly that we do not know where the optionality sits and refuse to invent a pin. One calendar lists the ten-year auction with a 5.30% prior yield while the cash ten-year trades near 4.86 — 42.0 basis points away, and 2.0 from Monday's thirty-year close, which is a reconciliation hypothesis and not a conviction. Logan is still 14:35 or 15:50, now two-to-one toward the later time but on forward calendars, which are statements of intent rather than reaction notes, so a 14:30 to 16:00 blackout is the only setting correct under both. A live blog puts a 13:30 release at 09:00. A search-topping auction record is a 12 May page with no date on it anywhere, which is why the date check fails where the level check works. And a syndicated article whose slug encodes 10 November 06:49 carries metadata saying 9 November 22:49 — eight hours apart, on the publisher whose slug we have treated as a timestamp for eight years. That is not a wrong number; it is a rule with a dependency we had not checked.

usdjpy

A Governor Named 0.3% as the Trigger for 50 Basis Points. The Market Prices Zero on That Branch.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London this morning that if core consumer prices rise 0.3% or more from September, a 50 basis point hike should be considered at the December meeting — and that limiting the move to 25 would put the Fed's credibility at risk. The consensus for that field is 0.2%. The release is at 13:30 UTC. The CME FedWatch tool, named on two pages, assigns 84.4% to a quarter point, 15.6% to no change, nothing to a cut and nothing at all to the half point the governor just put on the table. So the trigger sits exactly one tenth above consensus, and one tenth is also the full width of the named-house spread we published yesterday on the adjacent headline field — the branch priced at zero lives entirely inside the vendors' own disagreement. The market is not 84% sure the Fed moves; it is 84% sure it moves by exactly this much, which is a distributional claim and the one Waller made contestable. Three readers carry the 0.3 threshold identically; a fourth drops the number and keeps the sentence. We label the probability honestly: both pages naming CME trace to the same origin, so that is one wire read twice, sitting beside 84.2% with no feed named and about 85% from futures at Monday's close. Dollar-yen paid thirty pips for all of it — 157.87 early London, 158.17 after the remarks, still 52 to 53 pips under a 200-day band that now spans 158.60 to 158.70 on eight undated readings. And we still have no when-issued level for the 42 billion dollar ten-year at 18:00, so we publish no pre-registration rather than write one against a rolling average, which is the error we scored twelve hours ago.

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