Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
We Said the Risk Was on the Upside. Empire State Printed 7.60 and the Miss Was Thirteen Points the Other Way.
Yesterday this desk published three consensus readings for Empire State between 14.0 and 15.0 and argued the asymmetry was on the upside. September printed 7.60 against a 20.6 prior — a thirteen-point fall, and the miss was on the other tail. Every reading in the band was wrong by roughly half in the same direction, which is a different failure from bracketing the truth. New orders fell to 2.0 from 17.3, shipments went negative, and prices paid hit the highest since 2022 — a stagflationary shape twenty-nine hours before a Fed hike priced above 90%. Plus two figures of our own we are correcting unprompted.
Three Readers Want Empire State Between 14.0 and 15.0. The New York Fed Will Not Tell You Which Minute It Prints.
Empire State prints at 12:30 UTC and three readers give three consensus figures — 14.75, 15.0 and 14.0 — against an August prior of 20.6 that the New York Fed itself calls its highest reading in more than four years. We publish the band and settle the prior at the issuing institution. And the New York Fed does not promise a release minute: its own note says "at or shortly after 8:30 a.m.", so a symmetric news window is the wrong shape. Plus yesterday's UK cut closed: total pay printed +3.9%, exactly on consensus.