FX News

Three European Events, No Prints, and the Only Hold in a Hiking Week

Three scheduled events stand between Tokyo's close and the New York open, and not one of them is a print: a speech, a "final" August inflation revision, and a Bank of England decision that a prediction market put at 96.75% no-change — three days ago, before the Fed hiked. The ECB went on 10 September, the Fed went yesterday, the BOJ is expected to go tomorrow. The Bank of England is the only hold in a hiking week, and a filter that suspends on impact tags is about to cost you three windows for nothing.

Your Week-Ahead Table Has the Wrong Man Chairing Wednesday. Ours Had the Hours Wrong Too.

Two vendor calendars put Jerome Powell at Wednesday's FOMC press conference.

The Federal Reserve's own site names Kevin Warsh as Chairman and lists Powell separately as a sitting governor — which is exactly why a filter keyed on the name keeps matching. One table still has the Bank of Japan on hold against a survey at 97% for a hike. And our own fifty-one-hour gap between the two decisions is thirty-three. Plus an empty European calendar into the London open.

A Record Far-Right Result in Germany Moved the Euro by Almost Nothing — That Is the Information

The AfD took a record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday and the euro barely moved.

For a system trader the non-reaction is the useful data point — and it says something specific about what a volatility filter should have done.