Dollar–Yen Went Through the 200-Day Line Before a Single Vote Was Counted.
Dollar–yen traded 157.987 to 158.764 overnight, the strongest level since 14 October, and went through a 200-day moving average one Tokyo publisher puts near 158.60 and says has capped the pair since late September — in the hours before the first American polling station closed. The break has no sourceable cause: the same wire that gives the level says there was no dollar strength, that yen weakness drove it, and that there was no direct catalyst for the yen weakness. The tidiest explanation on offer is a yield rise on the 15:00 UTC job-openings print, and we refuse to size off it, because two readers put the ten-year near 4.91 per cent at the New York open, one page carries 4.909 against a live board at 4.9950, and nobody we could open publishes where it settled. Counting began at 23:00 UTC, the minute Tokyo opened, and one desk says a clear picture could take several days. Three morning readers describe the Senate three different ways — close, Democrats 53 to 47 if polls hold, and roughly 75 per cent on prediction markets — and the base case they publish, a divided Congress, is dollar-negative, which would send the pair back through the level it just cleared. Meanwhile the IMM net yen long above 100,000 contracts is the 101,591 figure we published yesterday, restated without refreshing a measurement now eight days old. We refuse yesterday's close: 0.5 per cent higher with a peak near 158.76 on one reading, 158.75 late with a 158.71 snapshot on another, upper 158s and up 75 sen on a third, and the four-values table that would settle it would not load.