Tokyo Is Shut for Culture Day, and the Only Bank Deciding Today Decides at 03:30.
Japan Exchange Group's own calendar lists today as a non-trading day — "Nov. 3 (Tue.)
Culture Day" — so there is no Tokyo cash equity market, no cash JGB market and Japanese banks are closed, from which we infer no 09:55 fixing, an inference we own rather than a sourced fact. Into that the Reserve Bank of Australia decides at 03:30 UTC with the Governor's press conference at 04:30 and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, and the first American polls do not close until 23:00 UTC tonight — so the only decision of the day lands in the hours Tokyo normally supplies the depth, and the whole session runs before a single midterm result exists. The cash rate is 4.60 and a hike to 4.85 is expected, but four readers give four probabilities: 81 per cent on one wire, 83 per cent from ASX futures, 88 per cent from money-weighted prediction markets and about 80 per cent per swaps, with the same page implying a 4.81 per cent post-meeting rate, which is a different unit. That series read 20 per cent on 2 October and 62 per cent on 26 October, so this is a market that changed its mind in five weeks. Meanwhile speculators were net long 101,591 yen contracts as of 27 October, a Tuesday-close measurement already six days old — a crowded short in dollar–yen on the day its home market is closed. We refuse to print a single Australian dollar level or a crude settlement: 0.7029 and 0.6998, and $102.31 then $96.12, are hours apart rather than publishers apart.