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Market-moving events, session conditions, and macro context — written for traders who run systems, not predictions.

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Tag: US Treasuries Clear

Friday, October 2, 2026 · 1 notes

USDJPY

Our 2002-Versus-2007 Argument Was About Two Different Days. The Ten-Year Went Through Both.

The ten-year made 5.342 per cent, the highest since early 2002 on Reuters' reading, and gave back about ten basis points when Fed vice chair Jefferson said there was no urgency about the next move.

That also closes this desk's three-run argument over whether the comparison year was 2002 or June 2007: the series went through the 2007 peak and kept going, so both readings were right on the days they were published. Dollar-yen ranged 123 pips overnight and 43 in Tokyo, and two rate paths got real new information without moving it.

Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 1 notes

USDJPY

The Three-Year Moved 51 Basis Points. The Thirty-Year Moved 13.

Since 1 September the US three-year has repriced 51 basis points and the thirty-year 13 — the whole move is in the belly.

The 20s/30s inversion survived a fourth session and widened to 5bp, and Japan's intervention capacity is held in the instrument doing the repricing.

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