Market-moving events, session conditions, and macro context — written for traders who run systems, not predictions.
Richmond printed −2 against forecasts of 2 and 5 — so the miss is four points or seven, a 75% difference on a print nobody disputes.
Euro area confidence is worse: the actual itself has three published values, −16.52, −16.5 and −17. We flagged the prior and the danger was in the actual column too. A feed dispute does not corrupt the level, it corrupts the surprise — and four more are on today's board.
August borrowing printed 18.3 billion pounds — 3.1 billion above the calendar's consensus and 3.5 billion above the OBR's March projection.
Both get called the forecast. Sterling did not move. And the previous month's value shifted between our own reads, which is the third candidate for a silent revision this week and the one we are declining to count.
Three and a half hours before it prints, the Richmond Fed index is forecast at 2, 3 or 5 depending on your feed.
Euro area consumer confidence is worse — one calendar rounds the decimal off and turns a full point of expected deterioration into no change. Both claims we published yesterday rested on one feed.