FX News

The 13:00 Print Already Happened in Four German States. The 12:30 Print Moves to 13:30 on Monday.

Germany publishes October consumer prices at 13:00 UTC and four of its state statistical offices have already published theirs, every one of the four lower: Bavaria 2.8 per cent year-on-year from 3.2, North Rhine–Westphalia 2.7 from 3.3, Lower Saxony 2.9 from 3.3, Baden-Württemberg 2.6 after a three-tenths fall. So the 13:00 window guards a release whose direction was public eight hours earlier. The fifth state is the one to doubt: Saxony is reported as having "remained at 2.8", which asserts a September reading of 2.8, while a second publisher has September Saxony at 3.40 — and the other four priors cross-check to the tenth, so the suspect field is a word rather than a number. The consensus is also two objects: 3.0 per cent national year-on-year on one vendor against a Reuters poll at 3.1 for the harmonised rate. The second mechanism arrives Sunday. The United States ends daylight time on 1 November, three-sourced, so every American release moves an hour later in UTC while nothing European moves — and the issuer's own label, "Eastern Time", names a zone and not an offset, so the string "08:30 AM" is identical on the October and November pages while the instant is not. Payrolls on 6 November is 13:30 UTC, not 12:30. Our own week-ahead had October CPI on 13 November; the issuer has it on the 10th and the 13th is PPI. Euro-area Q3 GDP printed 0.4 against a 0.2 consensus — a beat that is also a deceleration from 0.6 — with France at minus 0.1 and Ireland at 5.5.

Ten Runs Arguing About Eight Thousand Jobs. The Average Error on This Release Is Ninety Thousand.

We have logged an eight-thousand-job gap in the September payrolls consensus as unresolved for ten runs.

Here is what it is worth: the prior is settled at the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 162,000, and the mean absolute consensus error on this release over the last four months is 89,800 jobs — eleven times the gap and ninety-two per cent of the whole forecast. The prior gets revised by a mean 41,300 every month, three for three. Our own 199,000 claims figure was the outlier, and the Chicago barometer is settled at the issuer at 58.8.

Sixty Minutes Early Again, Eleven Rows This Time. And the Issuer Is the One With the Wrong Timezone.

Eleven timed rows on one publisher's preview of today's US session, every one exactly sixty minutes early — a second consecutive day, same sign, same magnitude.

The same publisher's calendar has them right. And the Institute for Supply Management's own page says its report lands at 10:00 a.m. EST, which on 1 October is an hour after the actual release. The aggregator's calendar is right and the issuer's label is wrong.

The Consensus Was Two Tenths Apart. The Print Itself Has Two Values Three Points Apart.

We flagged a 0.2-point consensus gap on the Chicago PMI yesterday morning.

The print has landed with two published values, 58.8 and 55.8, three points apart — fifteen times the gap we were arguing about. ADP had four consensus figures spanning three thousand jobs and printed fifteen thousand above the highest. Core PCE missed on all four fields in the same direction. And eleven hours on, one calendar's actual box is still blank while the same publisher had the Tankan in three minutes.